When the first snow is most likely to fall in your area

The big question every December is always will we be getting a white Christmas this year – that festive blanket of snow which seems so elusive these days.

The last time we had a proper one in the UK was back in 2010, and according to the Met Office: “It was extremely unusual, as not only was there snow on the ground at 83% of [observing] stations (the highest amount ever recorded) but snow or sleet also fell at 19% of stations.”

A full blanket of snow on the big day is actually quite rare, as for most parts of the UK Christmas Day actually falls at the start of the period when it is most likely to snow.

EthelRedThePetrolHead / Flickr

That’s backed up by Metcheck, who use climatological data from the last 160 years to predict when the first snow is most likely to fall in each part of the country.

For Greater Manchester and the North West, they have some bad news for anyone dreaming of a white Christmas, as the chance of a snowfall on the big day is pretty slim.

According to the data, which goes all the way back to 1860, in Manchester and Oldham the first snowfall date usually occurs around January 1st, while the heaviest fall is typically around January 19th.

Dai O’Nysius / Wikimedia

The dates are the same for those living in Salford, Hyde and Stockport, as you might expect with their close proximity, but for those further out of the city centre the numbers are slightly different.

Rochdale, Bolton and Bury could see first snow on December 29th, with the heaviest most likely on January 20th, while those in Wigan usually see white a little earlier, with the first on December 27th and heaviest January 17th.

If you live in Lancashire you could be getting the first snowflakes earlier as well, with most of the county, including Blackpool and Preston, potentially getting the first fall on December 27th – although January 19th is the most likely day for a really heavy snowfall.

Over in Burnley, Accrington, Bacup and Rawtenstall the first day is predicted to be December 29th, while the biggest day in those areas is usually January 20th.