Fears for ‘second wave’ of coronavirus after resurgence in Europe

There have been reports of a ‘second wave’ of coronavirus in Europe, due to spikes in Spain and France. 

Matt Hancock has said he is ‘worried’ about a ‘second wave starting to roll across Europe’ and that the UK must ‘do everything to prevent it reaching these shores’. 

The news comes after the Belgian government has warned the country could be put back into a ‘complete lockdown’ due to significant spike in infections. 

Similarly, Catalonia in Spain may also reintroduce lockdown if the outbreaks are not controlled within 10 days. 

The health minister in France has called for greater vigilance due to a sharp rise in COVID-19 cases in young people, while Germany’s public health body has said it is ‘deeply concerned’  about the rise over the past few weeks. 

However, experts are divided about whether this actually is a second wave of infections and what the term ‘second wave’ actually means. 

Scientists in the field actively avoid using the term ‘second wave’ as it is ill-defined and instead opt for ‘resurgence’, according to COVID expert at Norwich Medical School, Professor Paul Hunter.

The World Health Organisation has made it clear that it is, in fact, ‘one big wave’ spreading across the globe and for a second wave to exist, the virus would need to have gone completely away.

Similarly, ‘second wave’ also assumes that COVID-19 will act the way flu acts with seasonal peaks and troughs and rapid mutations, however ‘we don’t know that’, according to Dr Tom Frieden, who served as director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for eight years under Barack Obama.

Nevertheless, 36 countries in Europe are seeing an increase in infections, based on a seven-day rolling average. And while it has been six months since the WHO declared the highest possible alert under international law, global health emergency, cases are still acceleration.

There have been a total of 16 million cases detected worldwide but the overall figure has doubled in the last six weeks, according to the Telegraph. 

Between July 17th and July 23rd, Belgium saw a 71% increase on the seven-day average of infection number. 

The regional president of Catalonia, Quim Torra, has confirmed the current resurgence is a situation similar to that before the national lockdown was introduced in March. 

Mr Torra said: “We’re in the 10 most important days of the summer and during that time, we’ll see whether we’re capable of sorting out the situation through solidarity, cooperation and a collective effort.

“But the situation is critical and if we don’t manage to, then we will have to go backwards.”

According to the ministry, six people have died from coronavirus in the past seven days. At its peak, Spain had 9,222 new infections in a single day. On Monday, the Spanish health ministry reported 855 new cases in 24 hours. 

Many people in Barcelona have ignored advice to stay home and flocked to beaches instead and many young people have been holding ‘drinking parties’ in the streets. 

French health minister, Olivier Véran said at the weekend: “When we carry out mass testing we are seeing a lot of young patients … more youngsters than during the previous wave.

“This is particularly the case in the Île-de-France [Paris] region where we are seeing young people who are infected without knowing how it happened. Clearly, older people are still being very careful, while young people are paying less attention.”

Germany is seeing outbreaks in urban areas and among holidaymakers. But abattoir and harvest workers have demonstrated how quickly the virus can flare up again.

While Spain makes headlines due to a resurgence in cases and the government’s response to introduce quarantine for travellers returning to the UK from Spain, other parts of Europe are also on a worrying trajectory. 

Dr Kluge (WHO’s regional director for Europe) warned against complacency: “We consider about a three to four week lag time between case incidence and severe cases and mortality. We also know that the epi-curve is never linear, but rather exponential. 

“So in that sense, we absolutely need to be vigilant as these raising numbers could, could, prefigure a return to community transmission in many countries.”